S uccessful race playing consists of more than just skilled handicapping. Equally important is money control. This is an area where fans frequently bog down. .Many otherwise good race players appear to have a knack for snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. They’ve mastered the art of turning what should have been winning days into losing ones. This questionable accomplishment is achieved through poor betting practices.
An essential ingredient of poor betting practices is the averaging of greater amounts being bet on losers than winners. How often have you had days that, on a flat-bet basis, should have shown a profit yet wound up on the minus side? Such situations usually occur because the bettor is doing exactly the opposite of what he should be doing i.e., increasing the size of his wagers after a winner and decreasing them after a loser. Bear in mind that even the best handicapper will have more losers than winners. Therefore, it follows that caution rather than a derring-do attitude should prevail after a winner.
Joe Fan could typify the average track attendee. We’ll assume he goes to the track with a $100 bankroll. First race he bets $10 and hits a winner. He thinks to himself, "Hey! I’m hot. Let’s push our luck." Next race he doubles his bet and finds that his "winning streak" has came to an abrupt end. "Well," says he, "we’ll give it another shot." He bets another $20 and again loses. "That’s not so good," he says, "Better start cutting back or I won’t last out the day." He decides on a $10 wager, and starts looking for a "possibility" at a decent price to compensate for his two losers. He recognizes that the favorite at 4/5 is legitimate, but picks against it anyway, because a potential $3.60 mutuel won’t provide much satisfaction after two losers. The possibility loses, and -of course - the favorite romps home. There’s little purpose in continuing this harrowing tale. I’m sure the reader gets the idea.
Joe Fan, has bet $50 total on three losers (average $16.66) and $10 on his one winner. This haphazard type of wagering continues for Joe throughout the following five or six races. That night, at home, Joe reviews his selections and discovers that on a flat-bet basis he would have been a winner. Instead he wound up losing most of his original $100 bankroll. Joe obviously needs to improve his betting practices if he ever hopes to become a consistent winner.
The following suggests one approach that would enable Joe to insure he will never again be guilty of betting more on losers than winners. The method may not be every one’s cup of tea but it will provide 100% control. All bets should be structured so that each type of bet falls within its own separate unit or category, and has nothing to do with another type of bet. Example: All straight bets should be considered as comprising one series. All exacta bets would comprise another series, etc. However, the principle we cite should and can be applied to each series.
Now, assume we’re dealing with a straight win bet series and start with a wager of $10. The bet loses. Our next straight bet cannot be less than $10, but it can be more. We’ll further assume the next bet is $20. This too loses, and means we have AVERAGED $15 on each loser. Therefore the rule is we cannot make our next bet less than $15 . It can be more but not less. We make a $20 third bet and this time we win.
Okay, so we’ve now succeeded in averaging $15 on our losers and $20 on our one winner. Keep in mind our object is to not wind up betting more on losers than winners. Or -- expressed otherwise – we seek to average more on winning bets than losing ones. Therefore our fourth bet could range anywhere from $11 on up. This is so because win or lose we still would be averaging more on winners than losers. Example: A loser would give us an average of $8.66 compared to our $20 bet on a winner. A winner, on the other hand, would equal a $15.50 average. This compared to $15 bets on losers.
Let’s assume we’re the cautious type and decide on another $15 bet. If this fourth bet lost we then would have bet a total of $45 on three losers for an average of $15, and bet $20 on our lone winner. That’s fine, but what if the fourth bet won? In that case we would have bet a total of $35 on two winners averaging $17.50. Our purpose has still been achieved. We’ve bet more on winners than losers.
The foregoing approach provides a good control, but before winding up we’d like to interject a fact. Some players labor under the illusion that a progressive plan of betting will provide the panacea for all their wagering ills. The fact is that a progression plan can only be effective if a profit can be shown on a flat-bet basis, otherwise it will do nothing but increase losses. Be wary of progressive betting.
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His to Lose: A Belmont Stakes Preview
**For the first time since 2008, when Big Brown entered the Belmont Stakes gate, a 3-year-old thoroughbred will be running with a chance to win the Triple Crown. I’ll Have Another took the first two legs of the Triple Crown, winning the Kentucky Derby in the first week of May as a 15-1 longshot, then taking the Preakness Stakes two weeks later. In those two races, he ran down pacesetting speedster, Bodemeister, near the wire with perfectly-timed rides by his young, unknown jockey Mario Gutierrez.
In Saturday’s 144 th running of The Belmont Stakes (post time 6:40 p.m), I’ll Have Another won’t have Bodemeister to kick around anymore. There are those who think––absent his big rival––this will be a cakewalk for him. I’m not one of those people. If there’s one thing I’ve learned in following this game for the last dozen or so years it’s this: bet against the horse going for The Triple Crown.
There have only been 11 Triple Crown winners in history and none since 1978, when Affirmed managed the feat. The 1970s were a fertile time for racing, with three horses managing the feat in that decade. The great Secretariat won in 1973, by taking the Belmont by 31 lengths, in what most people agree is the most dominating horseracing victory ever. Seattle Slew won in 1977.
As I’ve started poring over the racing form for the Belmont Stakes (the statistical breakdown of each horse’s previous races), I’m scratching my head at some of these entries. Is it because no one respects I’ll Have Another’s chances, or because trainers and owners look to the absence of a Triple Crown winner in the last 34 years and figure, we’ve got nothing to lose?
Below, we take a look at the race, and break up the field into five categories. On top, of course, is the much-favored I’ll Have Another, followed by four other groupings, organized by their diminishing chances to win.
Root For, Bet Against: I’ll Have Another
A lot of horse people seem to like I’ll Have Another’s chances to do this thing; most feel it is his race to lose. It would be a nice story for the jockey, until the Kentucky Derby a virtual unknown. Until this past winter, he rode at a small track in western Canada, and by chance caught the eye of Another’s owner, J. Paul Reddam. But still, I have nagging doubts. Don’t get me wrong: I’ll be rooting for history here, wanting Another to win; but cynic that I am, I’ll be betting against him. There is just too much that has to go right for a horse to win this race on the heels of so grueling a springtime schedule.
In the past runnings of this race, many jockeys have made the mistake of underestimating the track itself. Belmont Park is a huge track, the largest in North America. Once around the dirt track, where the Belmont Stakes is run, is 1-1/2 miles (the length of this race). That’s a quarter mile longer than the Kentucky Derby. Most of these horses will never run another dirt race this long in their entire careers. So, not only is there a worry if the horse has the stamina in their genes for such a long race, but will the jockey time his moves correctly.
In 2004, when Smarty Jones was nipped at the wire by Birdstone, Smarty’s rider, Stewart Elliott, was roundly criticized for letting him run too fast too early. In 2009, jockey Calvin Borel (with an unprecedented shot to win a ‘jockey Triple Crown’ by winning all three races on two different horses), moved Mine That Bird too early, and he subsequently tired in the stretch. Both jockeys had little experience at Belmont’s big oval. (It didn’t help that Borel had become a minor celebrity and hit the talk-show circuit hard during Belmont week, instead of riding a few races at Belmont to familiarize himself with the track).
The Serious Challengers: Union Rags, Dullahan, Paynter, Street Life
Union Rags was many a turf writer’s favorite going into the Kentucky Derby (he went off as second-betting choice), but ran a dull seventh place, after getting pinched at the stampede out of the gate. I sometimes like this play for the Belmont: a forgotten former darling of the Kentucky Derby trail.
Dullahan ran into traffic troubles in the Derby, but managed to gain ground in the stretch and finish a respectable third. Both of these horses skipped the Preakness, so if you like the fresh horse angle, consider these two.
Paynter is trainer Bob Baffert’s ‘other’ horse, and one he thought would be his 3-year-old with the best shot at winning the Kentucky Derby. He is now something of a forgotten horse. Baffert is very high on Paynter and I am high on his 8-1 odds.
Street Life seems like an improving horse, and might also be one of those 3-year-olds that are just starting to understand the game. He’s a tad green, with only five races under his belt, but his sire, Street Sense won the Kentucky Derby in 2007, plus two other high-profile summer races at Saratoga.
Two Who Intrigue: Unstoppable U, Atigun
Unstoppable U is one of those entries that I keep lingering on when I look at the form. It would be crazy to actually think this horse can win, but that isn’t necessarily a reason to NOT bet a horse. He’s only raced twice, the longest at a mile, but has won both. One of his wins was at Belmont, always nice to see a horse with a win at the track. Would be a HUGE leap for him to actually win this, going a half-mile further than his current longest try, but his 30-1 odds are whispering sweet nothings, and his confident name must be planting subliminal hopes.
Atigun has more seasoning under his belt, having raced nine times, with three wins; his most recent was an off-the-pace win in a lower level race at Churchill Downs. He didn’t fare well in two Kentucky Derby prep stakes races, losing one by nine lengths and the other by eleven. Both of these horses are trained by Ken McPeek, the trainer of Sarava, the longest-odds horse ever to win the Belmont. Sarava was a Triple Crown spoiler in 2002 (sorry, War Emblem) who came in at 70-1. Can lightning strike twice?
Not Horrible: Optimizer, My Adonis
D. Wayne Lukas is a man whose bread and butter is winning big races with unfancied long shots; he trains Optimizer, who finished up the track in both the Derby and Preakness. There was a time when I would bet a “$5 Lukas-saver” on any stakes race where D. Wayne entered a horse (even when I didn’t like the horse). Lukas has won the Belmont Stakes four times, including three times in a row in the mid-1990s. His star has fallen a bit in the last ten years, but you still have to at least look at his horses in big races.
My Adonis has only two wins in 10 races, and three of his four seconds were in maiden races. His jockey, Ramon Dominguez, is one of the best on the New York circuit, so he knows this track. Hard to play a horse on the jockey alone, but Dominguez’s other-worldly 26% winning percentage this year is a baseball equivalent of a team with an .800 win clip.
Kinda Horrible: Ravelo’s Boy, Five Sixteen, Guyana Star Dweej
I’m sure their mamas love these three horses, but I don’t. Between them, they have 4 wins in 28 races (so that’s only one, non-maiden race win), and the highest Beyer speed number is Guyana’s 84. (By way of comparison, Another scored a 109 in the Preakness). Ravelo’s Boy is the only one with any sort of stakes-race experience, and he only came close in one of them, a minor Kentucky Derby prep race in Texas, where he came in fourth. The other two, are local horses where the connections figured what the hell. All three have odds of 50-1 on the morning line, but those will probably go much higher. Could see Guyana Star Dweej taking some drunken, on-track money for his bizarre name, but don’t ask me to explain what it means, because I have no idea, and not even the faintest curiosity to look it up. If he wins, we’ll all know what it means by Saturday night, and I’ll never bet another race, ever.
Reports came in around noon today that on the eve of running for the Triple Crown, I’ll Have Another was scratched. His trainer Doug O’Neill and owner J. Paul Reddam, explained that a strained tendon in I’ll Have Another’s left front foot would force him out of the race and possibly even end his career. At this point, it seems that the connections had an eye toward the horse’s health. The harsh reality of horseracing is that a thoroughbred like Another, who has won two so-called Classic races, will be worth tens of millions of dollars through a long lifetime of siring. He will command a huge stud fee, and the owners simply couldn’t risk a fatal breakdown. Maybe he will race again, but the mere suggestion today that retirement is on the table indicates that retirement it will be.
How will the defection affect the race itself, though? Strangely enough, because Another wasn’t a speed horse––one who likes to race on the lead––the race won’t unfold much differently. It will affect the odds though, which will be totally wacky now. The horses that were the most serious challengers––Union Rags, Paynter, Dullahan––will take a lot of the money that would have been put on Another. These three horses’ odds will go way down. Now, too, there is this: Saturday’s winner will always carry a figurative asterisk next to his name, there will always be the unspoken question: would he have beaten I’ll Have Another?
Having no Triple Crown on the line will affect the bottom line at Belmont Park greatly. There would have been 120,000 people in attendance with a chance to witness history––now less than half of those will show up. That’s a lot of money not bet, a lot of beer and food not sold, a lot of admission charge not tallied up. For the sport of horseracing itself, to quote a cynical friend: that you sound you hear is the nation ceasing to care about the race. There’s an old saying, ‘the opposite of love is not hate, but apathy,’ and the industry can’t take too much more of a public apathetic to their sport.
Caribbean Stud Poker was originally introduced to the casino realm in the ‘80s and has since experienced a profound growth in popularity the world over. Essentially, what seems to draw casino fans to Caribbean Stud Poker is the fact that it’s not only easy to play but many games of this type also have a progressive jackpot attached to it! So, you as a player can win thousands upon playing the game! If you feel compelled to play this beloved casino game, we recommend you take the time to learn how to play Caribbean Stud Poker first. Have a look below to discover its rules!Best Caribbean Stud Poker Casinos
Caribbean Stud Poker at Brick and Mortar Casinos vs. Online Casinos
Nowadays, Caribbean Stud Poker is not only played at land based casinos but is also available to play at the majority of online casinos you’ll find scattered all over the net. In both versions of the game, you’ll find that it’s played on semi-circular shaped table that is similar to which is used in Blackjack. However, the difference is fundamentally that whilst at land based casinos the game caters for 7 players to sit at a Caribbean Stud Poker table, the online version only caters for one player.Caribbean Stud Poker Rules
Ultimately the primary goal in Caribbean Stud Poker is to beat the dealer at his own game in order to emerge as the champion and walk away with the cash prize. Of course, doing this will entail following the Caribbean Stud Poker Rules you’ve learnt down to the very last detail. The two questions you’re probably asking yourself at the moment is ‘How do You Play Caribbean Stud Poker?’ and ‘Is Caribbean Stud Poker similar to Poker?’ Well, CasinoTop10’s experts are here to guide you through Caribbean Stud Poker Rules. Just take a look below and you’ll be well on your way to learning how to play the game.How do you play Caribbean Stud Poker Online?
Once you’ve opened the online game and loaded it, you’ll should acknowledge that the first thing you’ll need to do is place an initial bet, known as the ‘ante’. Usually, a casino will set a minimum bet as well as a maximum bet. This usually varies according to the casino you’re playing at.
At this early stage in the game, you’ll be able to choose whether or not you’d like to be in the running to win the progressive jackpot in Caribbean Stud Poker. In order to do this, you’ll of course have to place a side bet which must be of a specified amount.
After you’ve placed your bet on the table, you should then press the ‘Deal’ button. On doing this, you will receive 5 face-up cards from the dealer.
The digital casino dealer will then also give out 5 cards to himself which are all face down with the exception of 1 card, which will lie face-up instead.
During this stage of the game, you’ll then be able to see the cards which have been dealt out to you as well as the dealer’s face up card. This will lead you to determine whether to fold or call. In substance, if you choose to fold you’ll be forfeiting your hand as well as your ante bet and your progressive bet to the house. Whilst if you opt to call instead, you’ll have to place another bet which is equal to double your ante bet.
Once you’ve selected which manoeuvre you’d like to use, the dealer will then flip over his cards and you’ll be able to determine whether you’ve beat the dealer’s hand or not. If you’re familiar with the game of Poker, the hand rankings are the same. However, if you’re not, you can get to know which hand you have by having a look at the table below.
Caribbean Stud Poker Payouts
Winning the prize in Caribbean Stud Poker depends on the hand you’ve acquired and whether you’ve outranked the dealer’s hand. Have a look below to see on what conditions the house will payout.
Provided that the dealer’s hand qualifies, you’ll be able to compare your hand to the dealer’s hands. On the condition that your hand ranks higher than the dealer’s hand, you’ll be able to win on both the ante, which pays even money, as well as your call bet, which pays out according to the table above.
Assuming that you hand is lower than the dealer’s hand, you will lose both your ante bet as well as your call bet.
In cases in which the dealer’s hand doesn’t qualify, the house will pay you 1 to 1 on your ante bet. A non-qualifying hand is essentially one which does not contain an ace-king or higher such as a pair, straight, flush, straight flush and royal flush. In this case, your call bet will result in a ‘push’ which in substance means that nobody will win or lose. Instead, your original bet will just be returned to you.Progressive Bets
In Caribbean Stud Poker, you’re allowed to place progressive bets which can in hindsight help you win huge amounts you’ve only dreamt would become a reality.How do Progressive Side Bets Work?
Normally, you’ll be able to place this type of bet after you’ve placed your ante bet and once the dealer pushes. Once you have placed the side bet, the dealer will then press the red button in effect turning a red light on to give you an indication that you’re eligible to win the progressive jackpot. Have a look below in order to find out how much Caribbean Stud Poker Progressive Bets payout.
Bear in mind that although these large payouts are definitely alluring, the house edge is often quite large. In fact, most of the time you’ll find that it is a massive 26.46%. So, in retrospect, our experts suggest betting in this way only a couple of times, unless of course you’re prepared to risk it for the biscuit!Caribbean Stud Poker Progressive Jackpot - Our Expert Opinion
In hindsight, our players turned experts have two differing opinions about placing a progressive side bet in Caribbean Stud Poker. Whilst some players feel that the Progressive Jackpot Bet is a sucker bet that should only be placed if the progressive jackpot is large enough and the risk is worth taking, others feel that placing a bet of this nature must be done in order to make the game more adventurous and enterprising. Have a look at our tips about Caribbean Stud Poker Progressive Jackpot in order to find out more.Caribbean Stud Poker Progressive Jackpot Tips Make sure you have a large bankroll if you intend to place a progressive bet
Unless you have a large bankroll it is not entirely worth it to bet progressively throughout a whole Caribbean stud poker game.Bet Progessively when the jackpot is significanly large
Fundamentally, our experts are of the opinion that you should place a side bet if the jackpot is significantly large, as the cost of betting progressively will eventually add up and might end up making you go broke.Consider the Payouts on each hand
Although Caribbean Stud Poker is a game which is heavily based on chance, which means that there isn’t really a way of telling which cards you’ll end up with, you should consider how much the payout is according to the hand you acquire. For example, if you’ve managed to acquire a Royal Flush and have placed a side bet of $1, you’ll receive all of the amount in the progressive jackpot. However, if you didn’t place this bet, your payout will be 100:1.House Edge in Caribbean Stud Poker
When choosing a casino game to play, you as a player should definitely consider the game’s house advantage. The House Edge or house advantage of a game is typically used to refer to the mathematical advantage that the game as well as the casino has over you as a player as you play over a long span of time. In simple terms, this is defined as the amount you ae expected to lose in comparison to the original wager you’ve placed.
Most games of chance possess a relatively low house edge of 0-5%. These include games such as the famous table games Blackjack and Baccarat. However, Caribbean Stud Poker has a relatively high house advantage of approximately 5.22%. This is definitely a factor to consider before diving into a game of Caribbean Stud Poker as it’s a reflection of how much you can expect to win.Caribbean Stud Poker Common Mistakes
Simply reading through CasinoTop10’s Caribbean Stud Poker Rules is often not enough to enable you to win the game. However, knowing where you can go wrong whilst playing the game can definitely help you avoid making the same mistakes others have made in the past. Have a look at our Caribbean Stud Poker Common Mistakes below in order to discover mistakes to avoid whilst playing Poker’s distant cousin; Caribbean Stud Poker.Making Random Bets
A common mistake made by many players is placing bets at random. You should think about the bet you’re about to place, to see if it’s worth placing or not.Folding Low Pairs
If you’re a beginner, you’re bound to make this mistake as any pairs which are lower than 5 can scare you into thinking that you’ll definitely lose. However, the simple truth is that a dealer’s hand will only qualify with an ace and a king 44% of the time. So, players will have slightly more than 50% of a chance to beat the dealer whilst holding a low pair. Thus, in hindsight it’s definitely worth staying in the game and chancing it because if you fold, you’ll definitely lose your ante.
If you’re playing Caribbean Stud Poker, you should be aware of the fact that the game does not involve any sort of bluffing unlike its classic counterpart; Poker. So, whilst you’re playing Caribbean Stud Poker, you must remember that this casino game is played against the house rather than other players. So, be sure to avoid unnecessary bluffing!Playing a Hand consisting of an Ace and Queen
Despite the fact that this hand is often perceived by gamblers who’ve only started playing Caribbean Stud Poker as being a valuable hand, it’s in fact not as powerful as you might think. If you have this hand, you’ll only be able to win provided that the dealer’s hand doesn’t qualify.Not implementing a Caribbean Stud Poker Strategy
Other than sticking to the Caribbean Stud Poker Rules you’ve learnt, you should also seek to implement a strategy which could help you bag the cash and leave the casino all the richer.Learn Caribbean Stud Poker Rules and Play for Real Money
The five-card stud poker variant, Caribbean Stud Poker, is certainly a casino game which will entertain you for hours on end. Its rules are extremely easy to learn, strategy simple to implement and its payouts are quite generous. Moreover, playing the game can also lead you to winning a Progressive Jackpot amount by placing a side bet. So, what’s not to like? If you’re interested in playing the game but still feel a bit panic-stricken when it comes to playing for real-money, you should definitely try playing our Free Caribbean Stud Poker Game. Once, you feel confident enough in following its rules and implementing a strategy you should definitely have a look at our Best Caribbean Stud Poker Casinos in order to find the best one for you to play at.
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