Racing Network Best Bets Against The Spread - Sports Betting

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Racing Network Best Bets Against The Spread

Category: Betting


Some Types of Spread Bets

Some Types of Spread Bets Horse Racing

Aggregate winning distance —– Total winning distances of all races on the day at a meeting, added together.

Aggregate winning SP’s. ——–Total of winning starting prices for each race at a meeting, added together.

Match bets ———————One horse against another in a race, regardless of where they actually finish in a race. The distance between these two in lengths or part of a length being the match.

Favourites ———————A performance index for all the favourites at a meeting. Points are awarded for finishing 1, 2 or 3.

Racecard numbers —————Spreads on what the winning racecard numbers are — ‘totalled together’ — at a meeting.

Racecard No. ‘1’s. ————-A performance index for how well the number –‘1’ — on the racecard will do.

Jockeys indices —————-Performance index on how well jockeys get on at a meeting.

Totals of :-

  • Goals in a game, or in a tournament
  • Corners
  • Shirt numbers of scorers
  • Minutes of goals added together
Time of :-
  • 1st goal
  • 1st home goal
  • 1st away goal
  • 1st booking

Bookings ———————-Perf index on yellow and red cards given in a match.

Team performance ———-Index based on win, draw, goals, corners, bookings of team in a match plus other alternatives. These vary as per company.

Group indices —————–Finishing positions of teams in a league based on points for 1st, 2nd, 3rd etc.

Tournament index ———–Points for 1st, 2nd, semi-finals,qtr-finals etc.,in a competition.

Points in season ————–Spreads on total points for each team.

Golden boot index ————-Points for highest goalscorer in a tournament.

There were over 200 different types of spread bets on football in the first week of the Euro 2000 competition.

Totals of :-

  • Runs by a team in an innings.
  • Runs by a named batsman.
  • Wickets taken by a named bowle.
  • Catches taken in a match.
  • Opening partnership runs.

Match bets :-

  • Between two batsmen.
  • Between two bowlers.
  • Between teams in a series.

Group indices —————-Points for positions in leagues.

Tournament index ———-Points for 1st, 2nd, semis, qtrs etc., in knockout competitions.

Motor Racing

Match bets :-

  • Between two batsmen.
  • Between two bowlers.
  • Between teams in a series.
Totals of ——
  • Drivers points in a championship.
  • Number of laps completed by a driver in a race.
  • Number of finishers in a race.
  • Winning margin in seconds.

Totals of :-

  • Points scored in a match.
  • Try scorers shirt numbers added togethe.
  • Number of scrums in a match.
  • Championship points in season.

Tournament index ———–Points for 1st, 2nd, semis etc.,in competitions.

American Football – NFL

Totals of :-

  • Points in a game.
  • Yards–Passing.
  • Yards — Rushing.
  • Shirt numbers of players scoring touchdowns.

Performance indices ——-Positions in divisions.

Finishing positions in play-offs.(example: Super Bowl).

Supremacy ——————–Which team has supremacy in points terms in a match.

Totals of :-

  • The finishing position of a player in a tournament.
  • Numbers of pars made in a round, or a tournament.
  • Number of putts made on the green by a player in a round or a tournament.

Tournament indices ———Positions of players or teams as points for 1st, 2nd etc in knockout competitions, Majors, Opens etc.

Totals of :-

  • Numbers of tie-breaks in a match.
  • Number of tie-break points in a competition.
  • Number of matches going to 5 sets in a competition.

Match supremacy ———–Margin of victory of one player against another,in games won.

Tournament index ———-Points for final positions-1, 2, losing semis, qtrs, etc.

Total of ——–Time in minutes that fight will last.

Supremacy —Points awarded for one fighter against the other.


Total of ———-Aggregate winning trap numbers at a meeting.

Multi-Mutts —-Aggregate total of multiplied forecasts at a meeting.

Other sports are also covered in spread betting, including snooker, darts, athletics and no doubt many of the Olympic sports will be looked at.

Sports are not the only things that these companies offer bets on. Some offer spreads on Futures. A few examples are the FTSE 100 index, Nasdaq, Wall St. index, the Nikkei Dow 225. They offer spreads on Government bond futures, Currencies, Precious metals, and on Commodity futures. So if you wanted a bet on the price of orange juice or pork bellies fluctuating then some of these spread betting firms will accomodate you as long as you have the money to play.

Also there was a big market for spread betting in the general election, where quotes were offered on the amount of seats won by each party, the winning margin, percentage of the vote, etc.The possibilities of winning large sums or losing equally large amounts of money on an event like a general election should lead you to try and understand how spread betting actually works — its dangers as well as its good side.

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DMan s NFL best bets for NFL Week 7 include Pittsburgh Steelers

DMan's NFL best 'bets' for NFL Week 7 include Pittsburgh Steelers

CLEVELAND, Ohio -- The Pittsburgh Steelers will win and cover against the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday afternoon as part of NFL Week 7. At least that is how I see it for one of my best "bets'' against the spread -- entertainment purposes only, of course.

Thank goodness my BBs, in particular, are for entertainment purposes only. I opened 3-0 in Week 2 and have gone 0-11-1 since. I couldn't have gone 0-11-1 if I set out to do so. Nightmare.

I predict @ Pittsburgh (-5 1/2) over Cincinnati.

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Best bets on Week 14 NFL games - ABC News

Sections Yahoo!-ABC News Network | © 2017 ABC News Internet Ventures. All rights reserved. Best bets on Week 14 NFL games

Ethan Miller/Getty Images

It's Week 14 of the NFL season and ESPN Chalk's Vegas experts have you covered with comprehensive betting previews for all of Sunday's day action, included together in one handy file.

Last week: 1-3 against the spread with best bets (marked with an *); 3-2 with over/under best bets; 4-6 on ATS leans; 0-1 on O/U leans.

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Season to date: 37-34-3 (52.1 percent) on ATS best bets; 32-22 (59.3 percent) with O/U best bets, including a loss on KC-OAK Over 46 on Thursday night; 56-57-2 on ATS leans, including loss on Oakland 3 on Thursday night; 10-9 on over/under leans.

Last week: 2-11 on ATS best bets; 7-4 with O/U best bets.

Season: 65-60-3 (52 percent) on ATS best bets; 65-55 (54.2 percent) on O/U best bets.

Last week: 0-3 on ATS best bets; 0-2 on O/U best bets, 1-0 on ATS leans.

Season: 10-15 (40 percent) on ATS best bets; 17-17 (50 percent) on O/U best bets; 7-3 on ATS leans; 3-3 on O/U leans.

Last week: 1-5 on ATS best bets; 1-1 on O/U best bets, 1-1 on ATS leans.; 1-0 on O/U leans

Season: 18-26-2 (40.9 percent) on ATS best bets; 9-18 (33.3 percent) on O/U best bets; 11-6-2 (64.7 percent) on ATS leans, 4-3 on O/U leans.

Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Friday morning.

Spread: Opened Pittsburgh -1.5; now Pittsburgh -3 (EVEN)

Public perception: The public is all over the Steelers, who have overcome their midseason slump and won (and covered) three straight to get back in the playoff picture.

Wiseguys' view: The sharps also have joined the public on the Steelers, though the sharps who prefer the Bills were waiting to see how many points they could get, and we saw the line move to -3 (EVEN) at several books on Wednesday afternoon as this was being written.

Dave Tuley's take: This is a week that is going to shock some of my followers, as I like several short favorites, but I actually like the over better in this matchup. The Steelers are the league's top under team at 9-3, but that's mostly due to their over/unders being set high and an improving defense. The Bills (8-4 with the over), with LeSean McCoy running and Tyrod Taylor stretching the field with his long throws, have a chance to keep up with the Steelers. I expect Pittsburgh to prevail, but as long as it goes over I'll be happy.

Rufus Peabody: The final 1? quarters of Buffalo's disheartening loss in Oakland last week is fresh in our memory, but don't forget the first 2? quarters, when Buffalo dominated. Despite the collapse, Buffalo's performance still graded out slightly above average. The Bills face a Pittsburgh squad that has won three straight games but has done so against less-than-stellar competition, beating Cleveland, an Indianapolis team with Scott Tolzien at quarterback and a Giants team that Massey-Peabody ranks -- despite an 8-4 record -- as only the 18th-best team in football. I like the home 'dog here at a line of 2 or better.

Massey-Peabody Line: Buffalo -1.0; Total: 46.6

Prediction: Buffalo 25, Pittsburgh 24

The pick: Buffalo and the over -- BUF 3, 47

Spread: Opened Tennessee -1.5; now Tennessee -1

Public perception: The public is taking notice of the Titans, but the Broncos are still more of a public team, even though we're still waiting to hear if Trevor Siemian will return at quarterback or if Paxton Lynch will get his second start.

Wiseguys' view: The sharps are mostly split on this game, and are also waiting to see who starts at quarterback for Denver.

Dave Tuley's take: I'm on the Broncos as the underdog here, hoping for Siemian but more confident in Lynch against the Titans' defense than against the Jaguars. As I've written several times this season, I like the Titans as underdogs, but they're not as good in the role of favorites (3-1 straight up but 1-3 ATS after nearly squandering their last game at Chicago). The Titans haven't stepped up against better competition (two losses to the Colts and 0-1 against the Texans, as they've tried to get over the hump in the AFC South), and I like the Broncos' experience in what could be a pivotal game in the playoff race.

Rufus Peabody: With uncertainty surrounding Siemian's status for Sunday's game, the current line of Tennessee -1.5 is posted at only a handful of books. Regardless of the quarterback (my numbers assume Siemian will start), Denver's offense continues to struggle, posting below-average offensive game grades the past four weeks. Tennessee's offense has continued to improve and impress; in fact, the last week the Titans posted a below-average offensive game grade (using Massey-Peabody game grades) was Week 3.

Pick: Tennessee -1.5, Lean Under 43.5

Massey-Peabody Line: Tennessee -4.2; Total: 41.4

Prediction: Tennessee 24, Denver 20

Spread: Opened Washington -1; now Washington -2

Public perception: The public is lopsidedly on the Redskins here, as they're fighting for a playoff spot while the Eagles are playing out the string.

Wiseguys' view: There has been some sharp support for Philadelphia (the line dropped to pick 'em at a few books), but that's mostly disappeared.

Dave Tuley's take: I was surprised to see any books go with pick 'em. Granted, the Redskins are coming off a loss at Arizona, but the Eagles are 2-7 since their much-ballyhooed 3-0 start and have failed to cover their past three games, as they were run off the field by the Seahawks, Packers and Bengals -- and all by 11 points or more. The Redskins also won the previous meeting 27-20, and it was that close due only to the Eagles scoring on a kick return and an interception return -- otherwise, no offensive touchdowns.

Rufus Peabody: I didn't have a play on this game when it opened at pick 'em, but the line has moved hard toward Washington, and now I show a lot of value on the Eagles. Washington has lost two straight, but those games were on the road at Dallas and Arizona. Philly has lost three in a row and five of six, but those haven't been cakewalks, either: they were against teams that rank second, third, fifth, seventh, 10th, and 18th in the Massey-Peabody ratings, and four of the six games were on the road.

The Redskins have an elite offense, but, as good as it's been, their defense has been almost that bad. While one team's strength is the other's shortcoming, their overall ratings are almost identical -- Philadelphia ranks 13th in Massey-Peabody, Washington 14th.

Massey-Peabody Line: Philadelphia -1.9; Total: 46.1

Vegas expects the Eagles to keep it close this weekend, but the surging Redskins shouldn't have much trouble planting plenty of points on the Eagles' struggling defense. Washington is only 13th in the league in offensive touchdowns per game (2.6) but ranks fourth in scoring opportunities (5.4), thanks to a league-high 34 field goal attempts (the Eagles are second with 30). Washington's offense has found the end zone at least twice in seven consecutive games, and Philadelphia has allowed at least three scores during seven of its nine games since its Week 4 bye. The Philly offense hasn't scored more than twice in a game since Week 3 but will have an opportunity to exploit a Washington defense that has allowed three-plus scores in six consecutive games. Of course, the Eagles failed to score a single offensive touchdown during the Week 6 meeting.

Prediction: Washington 27, Philadelphia 22

The pick: Washington and the over -- WAS -1, 46.5

Public perception: The public is all over the Cardinals, coming off their 31-23 win over the Redskins, though there's just as many people abandoning the Dolphins after their 38-7 loss at Baltimore after previously working their way into the playoff picture.

Wiseguys' view: The sharps also sided with Arizona right away, and it flipped to the Cardinals being favored on Wednesday afternoon.

Dave Tuley's take: The Cardinals were circled in ink as one of my best bets this week. I bet them at 1.5, and I'm using them in the Westgate SuperContest at 1, as I wasn't sure why the Dolphins were ever favored. I'm sticking with them as the right side even after the line move, as they match up very well with the Dolphins. The No. 2 defense should contain Jay Ajayi and put pressure on Ryan Tannehill, while the Cardinals' offense should do enough to get the comfortable victory.

Rufus Peabody: I liked Arizona 2.5, where this line sat early in the week, but it has steamed pretty hard toward Arizona. The Cardinals do have a long flight to Miami, but on the bright side it's another warm climate, so they won't be dealing with the cold-weather acclimatization issues that sprout up this time of year in colder cities (see Kansas City vs. Oakland on Thursday night). I make Arizona a small favorite (52.6 percent), so no value on this game.

Massey-Peabody Line: Arizona -0.8; Total: 45.0

Prediction: Arizona 23, Miami 20

Spread: Opened Carolina -3; now Carolina -1.5

Public perception: The public is mostly split on this game, though more are landing on the Panthers as the line continues to drop at other bet-tracking sites.

Wiseguys' view: The "opener" of Carolina -3 was at the Westgate on Sunday afternoon before the Panthers kicked off against the Seahawks on Sunday Night Football and lost 40-7. Most books opened the line on Monday morning at Carolina -1 or -1.5, and the sharps haven't shown a preference at those numbers.

Dave Tuley's take: This is a toss-up and also has the uncertainty of which Carolina team is going to show up (and follow the dress code): the team that battled throughout in the loss to Oakland or the one blown out by Seattle. The Chargers give their full effort every week (and they're a profitable 7-5 ATS), but there are more live underdogs that I like this week. I would normally go with the over in a game like this with two also-rans (and the Chargers are 8-4 with the over despite staying under in their last two games), but the total is a little high for my liking.

Rufus Peabody: Carolina turned in its worst performance of the season last week in a 40-7 blowout loss in Seattle. Based on the past two games, it appears that Luke Kuechly was the glue holding what had been an average defense together. Without Kuechly, the Panthers have surrendered 35 and 40 points in their past two games. Although neither team has been mathematically eliminated, my simulations have both Carolina and San Diego with only a 1 percent chance of making the playoffs. San Diego has to travel three time zones from west to east, so Carolina's home-field advantage is a little bigger than usual.

Massey-Peabody Line: Carolina -3.3; Total: 47.0

Prediction: San Diego 27, Carolina 26

The pick: San Diego and the over -- SD 1.5, 48.5

Spread: Opened Cincinnati -4; now Cincinnati -5.5

Public perception: The public is all over the Bengals, who are having a disappointing season but are coming off a 32-14 rout of the Eagles, though it's just as much a case of people betting against the Browns, who are a league-worst 2-10 ATS.

Wiseguys' view: The sharps also jumped on the Bengals at books that opened with lower numbers.

Dave Tuley's take: This game is probably of more interest to fantasy players and likely will be the lowest-bet game of the week. However, it will be interesting to see if Robert Griffin III's return sparks the Browns' offense at all (he looked good in preseason and there was optimism before he got hurt in the season opener, though he's still without oft-suspended Josh Gordon). My attention will be elsewhere on Sunday.

Rufus Peabody: The return of Griffin should provide a boost to Cleveland's offense, as Massey-Peabody has Griffin rated substantially higher than any of the team's other signal-callers. Cleveland gets a boost coming off the bye, and Cincinnati's home-field advantage is a bit weaker since it's a divisional game. Cleveland should be able to keep the game close, and it has a 34.6 percent chance of getting that elusive first win.

Massey-Peabody Line: Cincinnati -4.8; Total: 44.9

Prediction: Cincinnati 24, Cleveland 18

The pick: Lean Cincinnati -- CIN -5.5

Public perception: The Lions have won and covered their past four games to make a lot of believers, as they sit atop the NFC North with a two-game lead with four weeks to play. The public doesn't know what to make of the Bears with Matt Barkley, though he did lead them to a backdoor cover against the Titans two weeks ago and then beat the 49ers last week.

Wiseguys' view: The sharps were also on the Lions at lower numbers, though there was buyback on the Bears when the line got as high as 8.5.

Dave Tuley's take: The Bears have covered three straight (and don't forget that they actually beat the Lions 17-14 back in Week 4). I love taking underdogs in these spots. Besides, the Lions have been doing it with smoke and mirrors. Granted, they played a complete game last week at New Orleans and didn't trail in the fourth quarter for the first time this season, but their M.O. is usually to let teams stick around, and the Bears have shown recently that they can be competitive despite all their injuries this year. Besides, the Bears rank better than the Lions on offense (No. 16 in yards per game vs. No. 21) and defense (No. 7 vs. No. 15). Teams with stat edges like that are usually favored, but that's OK, as I just need the Bears to stay within a touchdown.

Rufus Peabody: One challenge handicapping this game was deciding whether to apply the "replacing injured starter" tag to Barkley. It might seem arbitrary, but, based on nearly 20 years of data, it is shown to matter. For all the wizardry we can do with statistics, the knowledge that the coaching staff thought another quarterback was better is worth something. In this case, Barkley replaced an injured Jay Cutler, but there were rumors that Cutler was going to be benched anyway. I compromised and gave Barkley half of the "injury replacement" tag. Detroit is overrated, but I rate Chicago very low with Barkley at the helm.

Massey-Peabody Line: Detroit -7.5; Total: 43.2

Surprisingly, the Lions' offense hasn't scored more than a two touchdowns in a game since Week 6. Of course, Detroit has made up for that a bit with a hefty 19 field goal attempts during the recent six-game slump. Chicago's defense held the 49ers without a touchdown in Week 13 but had allowed three-plus scores during each of its previous three games. And, coupled with a long list of injuries and suspensions, this is a unit that can be exploited. Chicago is 0-6 on the road and allowing 28 points per game during those affairs. The Chicago offense put up three touchdowns during each of its past two games, but consider the opposition: two of the league's worst-performing defenses in Tennessee and San Francisco. This is an offense mostly devoid of talent and is unlikely to have much success against a defense that has allowed a total of 10 touchdowns during its past six outings. That includes one touchdown to Drew Brees and the Saints in the Superdome last week.

Prediction: Detroit 25, Chicago 15

The pick: Detroit and the under -- DET -7.5, 43.5

Spread: Opened Indianapolis -4.5; now Indianapolis -6

Public perception: The public is back on the Colts' bandwagon, stoked by their 41-10 domination of the Jets on ESPN's Monday Night Football.

Wiseguys' view: That Indianapolis -4.5 "opener" was from Sunday afternoon, so most books opened Tuesday morning with the line closer to 6 after Monday night's rout.

Dave Tuley's take: The Colts are playing better of late (and you can toss out the Thanksgiving night loss to the Steelers when Scott Tolzien had to start for Luck), but I feel this line is overinflated after everyone saw the Colts blow out the Jets on national TV. In the first meeting between these teams, the Colts also led big but the Texans rallied late to win at home by a field goal. I expect this to come down to the final gun as well. In fact, the NFL Vegas Rankings that we're a part of here at Chalk have these two power-rated evenly, so even with Indy's home-field advantage, this line shouldn't be more than a field goal.

Rufus Peabody: Indianapolis is the favorite to win the AFC South (at 40 percent) based on the 50,000 simulations I ran, but this is a de facto elimination game for the Colts. If Indianapolis loses, Houston will have swept the season series and will hold the tiebreaker, meaning Indy would have to gain two games with three remaining to win the division, something that happens in only 7 percent of my simulations.

Massey-Peabody Line: Indianapolis -5.5; Total: 46.1

No question it's been a struggle for the Texans over their three-game losing streak entering this contest. However, they've outgained two of those three opponents, with the Packers last week plus just 2 yards. This will serve as another opportunity for Brock Osweiler to step up against the Colts' 31st-ranked defense, which is allowing a troubling 6.1 yards per play. Osweiler did play arguably his best game of the season in the Texans' win over the Colts earlier this season. The Colts still have protection issues along the offensive line, as the Texans' 10th-ranked defense should provide ample pressure. Houston owns the better run game and defense, which make the points worth taking in this huge divisional contest.

Prediction: Indianapolis 25, Houston 20

The pick: Houston and the under -- HOU 6, 47

Spread: Opened Minnesota -3; now Minnesota -3.5 (EVEN)

Public perception: The public is on the Vikings, who showed signs of life despite losing 17-15 against the Cowboys a week ago Thursday. Besides, not many people are looking to bet on the reeling Jaguars.

Wiseguys' view: The sharps snapped up all the Minnesota -3 (-110) lines but are more split with the line at 3.5.

Dave Tuley's take: The Jaguars have burned me enough this season to keep me from backing them here. Besides, if the Cowboys could score only 17 points on the Vikings' defense, how can the Jaguars be counted on to do better. The Vikings are also offensively challenged (ranked No. 31 in yards per game) and face the Jaguars' No. 4-ranked stop unit, so I like the under, even though the oddsmakers set it fairly low.

Rufus Peabody: Jacksonville is an enigma. Their defense ranks fourth in yards per play and second in play success, but as a team, the Jaguars only have three interceptions and have forced a mere nine fumbles (recovering four). There isn't a ton of predictive value in turnovers, but Jacksonville's defensive scoring efficiency -- a stat used in Massey-Peabody that quite simply measures how many points opposing teams are able to generate per yard gained -- is so bad that it has a large effect on their rating. I like Minnesota laying three, even with the extra juice.

Massey-Peabody Line: Minnesota -5.4; Total: 42.7

Yes, the Jaguars are mired in a seven-game losing streak. However, the Vikings have languished as well, losing six of seven. Of course, the highly touted Vikings defense has thrived all season, but on closer inspection, this Jaguars team is right there, with both units allowing 4.9 yards per play. The Vikings will be without safety Harrison Smith this week, leaving a massive hole in their last line of defense. In fact, the Jaguars' defense should be able to hold down a dink-and-dunk Vikings offense that ranks 31st in the NFL, averaging 297 yards per game. The Vikings are simply an undeserving road favorite.

Prediction: Minnesota 19, Jacksonville 17

The pick: Jacksonville and the under -- JAX 3.5, 39

Spread: Opened San Francisco -1; now San Francisco -2.5 (-120)

Public perception: The public is split on this game, though it should rival the Bengals-Browns game in regards to lowest-betting handle of the week. Both teams have repeatedly let down backers this year: the 49ers are 2-9-1 ATS, the Jets are 3-6-3 ATS.

Wiseguys' view: This line opened between pick 'em and San Francisco -2.5, and it's floated in that area all week.

Dave Tuley's take: Both teams have let me down all season, including last week with the 49ers at Chicago and the Jets hosting the Colts. That puts the ugh in ugly. With the Jets turning over the reins to Bryce Petty, I'll side with the 49ers but only in straight-up contests, as I otherwise won't get involved with this stinker.

Rufus Peabody:?Both San Francisco and New York made me look foolish for picking them last week, with San Francisco losing by 20 at a snowy Soldier Field, and New York being blown out at home by Indianapolis, 41-10. There is no sugar coating either performance either, as the teams graded out third-worst and worst, respectively, in my weekly game grades. The Jets turn to Bryce Petty as the starter, a decision that makes them substantially worse in the short-term, and is a big reason why I like the under in this game.

Massey-Peabody Line: San Francisco -2.5; Total: 41.5

The pick: New York Jets and the over -- NYJ 2.5, 43.5

PickCenter public consensus pick: N/A

Public perception: Other bet-tracking sites have the public between 60 percent to 70 percent on the Buccaneers, as these do seem like two teams heading in opposite directions. The Saints were overachieving this year, but losing three of their last four (which started with the blocked PAT that led to the loss to the Broncos) has hurt their playoff chances, while the Bucs are coming off four straight upsets and are now tied for the NFC South lead.

Wiseguys' view: The sharps are more split on this game. Most books opened this line at Tampa Bay -2.5, and it has barely moved at all, plus we're seeing buyback on the Saints at the books that have gone to 3.

Dave Tuley's take: It will be interesting to see how the Buccaneers fare in the role of favorites after three outright upsets, but I'm not going to fade them here. The Saints put up 49 points against the Rams in their one win over the past four games, but they were held in check in the three other games and now take on a Tampa Bay defense that has stepped up big time recently. Both teams are 6-6 with over/unders, but this total seems to reflect the early-season performance of the Saints, as they've gone under in their past three -- I expect that to continue here on the road.

Rufus Peabody: New Orleans is coming off a clunker where it put up one offensive touchdown against a defense that, at the time, ranked 26th in the Massey-Peabody ratings. Still, I like New Orleans here. Despite their winning record, Tampa Bay is a subpar team. The Bucs have been extremely good on both sides of the ball on third and fourth downs, ranking seventh on offense and fifth on defense. On first and second downs (and remember there are many more plays on first and second downs) they have been a different team, ranking 15th in offensive play success and 27th in defensive play success. While third and fourth downs have great explanatory power -- they have a huge impact on a game -- they don't have more predictive power than other downs. For that reason, Tampa Bay is vastly overrated by the market.

Massey-Peabody Line: New Orleans -3.0; Total: 49.5

Prediction: New Orleans 27, Tampa Bay 27

The pick: New Orleans and the over -- NO 2.5, 51.5

Public perception: The public still loves the Falcons, even after their wild loss to the Chiefs last week on the defensive two-point conversion (though they probably weren't going to cover anyway). The public still prefer the Falcons, with their No. 1 offense, more than the Rams, who have lost and failed to cover three straight.

Wiseguys' view: Sharps joined the public in backing the Falcons early in the week at lower spreads but have mostly backed off with the line up to 6.

Dave Tuley's take: I continue to cheer for the Falcons, who were my Super Bowl value bet here at Chalk during the offseason, and I have tickets on them at 100-1 to win the Super Bowl and 10-1 to win the NFC South, but I haven't been betting them as favorites (fortunately). I have been betting the overs, though, and they've rewarded backers at a league-best 10-2 with the over this season. Jared Goff, after a rough outing against the Dolphins, should have more success against the Atlanta defense, though I wouldn't be surprised if the Falcons go over this total themselves.

Rufus Peabody: While the Rams haven't officially been eliminated, they make the playoffs in only 24 of my 50,000 simulations. Los Angeles has been horrific passing the ball since the change to Jared Goff in Week 10. With Case Keenum starting, the Rams averaged 6.4 yards per pass play; with Goff, 4.4. Still, with the line steaming toward Atlanta, I lean to Los Angeles 6.5.

Massey-Peabody Line: Atlanta -4.7; Total: 43.7

Prediction: Atlanta 27, Los Angeles 18

The pick: Atlanta and the under --- ATL -6, 45

Public perception: The public is split on this game, as both are very popular teams.

Wiseguys' view: Sharps are also split with those preferring the Seahawks, happy to lay just -2.5 earlier in the week, while Packer backers are happy to get 3 at home.

Dave Tuley's take: This is clearly that marquee matchup in the afternoon games (late afternoon on East Coast). I'll side with the home underdog for contest purposes, but I'm not as confident to bet it straight. The Seahawks are peaking at the right time (it's easier to see that if you toss out the 14-5 loss at Tampa Bay), and Aaron Rodgers will have to summon all his magic to get his offense on the board. I expect this to be a playoff atmosphere and result in a tight, low-scoring game, and the total seems to be set a shade too high. (Note: advance weather forecasts call for a chance of light snow, which could help our under, like it did in the Packers' 21-13 win over Houston last Sunday).

Rufus Peabody: While it isn't factored into my numbers, the loss of Earl Thomas at safety has to have some impact on Seattle. On offense, the Seahawks have been one of the most inconsistent teams in football, looking dominant at times, and inept at other times (usually on the road). My numbers make Green Bay's home-field advantage larger than normal for this game, due to the travel distance and weather (snow is expected).

Massey-Peabody Line: Seattle -0.3; Total: 47.7

The Seahawks' offense showed its capabilities last Sunday night, producing a whopping 534 yards against Carolina. Injuries hampered quarterback Russell Wilson to start the season, but he's much healthier at this stage. The return of running back Thomas Rawls made a noticeable difference for the run game last week as well. The Seahawks own the balance to create issues for an underperforming Packers defense. The Packers' stop unit looked to play much better last week, but the weather helped hold down their opposition. In addition, the Packers lose another key piece for this contest with Nick Perry and his 8.0 sacks out of the lineup. Meanwhile, the Packers' offense has played more free and easy of late, as a much-needed adjustment, while the Seahawks' loss of safety Earl Thomas should open up a few big plays for Rodgers and the pass game.

Prediction: Seattle 24, Green Bay 22

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