5 College Football 2016 Win Total Over Bets 5 College Football 2016 Win Total Over Bets
College Football is fast approaching. Win totals are out. Here are five teams we predict to surpass their win totals.
Iowa Hawkeyes [Over 8.5] You could say Iowa is destined to fall back to its 7 or 8-win rut. History would support you. But, if we assume Iowa will be decent to good with a returning QB, the schedule lines up well for them. Their scariest non-conference opponent may be an FCS team. Their three biggest games – Wisconsin, Nebraska, Michigan – are at home. Their toughest road game looks like it will be Penn State. They should get to nine wins. But, should is seldom will when Kirk Ferentz gets involved.
West Virginia Mountaineers [Over 6.5] This is a must-win season for Dana Holgorsen, who returns nine starters on offense. The schedule plays out well logistically. No back-to-back road trips. The farthest they travel is Maryland before mid-October. They get TCU, Baylor, and Oklahoma in Morgantown. Both Missouri and BYU have new coaching staffs. This team was good statistically last season. Better efficiency could pay huge dividends.
Kansas State Wildcats [Over 5.5] Never underestimate Bill Snyder. Kansas State got wrecked with injuries at quarterback and in the secondary last year, about the worst thing that can happen in the Big 12. They still came close against Oklahoma State, TCU, and Baylor. Kansas State is competitive and well coached. They have the rudiments of a solid team. There’s a lot of uncertainty in the rest of the Big 12. A bowl game seems to be a reasonable expectation.
Arkansas Razorbacks [Over 7.5] On paper, Arkansas has been a top 15-20 team the past two seasons, playing heinous schedules. The schedule this year isn’t that bad. They get Alabama, Ole Miss, Florida, and LSU in Fayetteville. The road games are winnable. Their farthest trip is to Auburn. The offense should be productive. The defense should improve with nine starters back. If they are going to make a run at 10 wins and relevance under Bielema, this would be the year. Woo Pig Sooie!
Florida State Seminoles [Over 9.5] Florida State, like every year is loaded. If they can find stable quarterback play, they should be in good shape. They have Ole Miss (N), Louisville (A), Miami (A), Clemson (H), Florida (H). They will be 50/50 or favored in all five games. If they can win three out of the five, they hit the over, barring an inexplicable defeat elsewhere. You would be surprised if they didn’t.Like this article?
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Ty is a Senior Writer for The Big Lead. He attended the University of Michigan. He likes his meals prodigious and his whiskey neat. He is based in Detroit.More Leads
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Last Updated: 2017-10-06
At this point in the college football season, the college football handicapper can already be set in their ways. That could be a big mistake. We are just a few weeks into the season but once a college football handicapper finds tools that they like to use to try and find winners, they could get stuck in a rut. A college football bettor could easily get tunnel vision.
Once they start winning football games they automatically assume that they have found the winning formula and that they do not need to change or update the way they investigate games. This usually ends up in a very bad day for the handicapper at the betting window. Then and only then, will the college football handicapper rethink their approach and change up some of the variables that are used when they are betting on this popular sport. Before that losing streak happens it is important for the handicapper to always be looking for new angles.
One of those angles is betting against the spread using the college football consensus. It is no longer used for just betting against the public, but using it to find different games and angles that may be unseen at first glance.
We have two games this week that are grabbing our attention.
Northwestern Wildcats (33%) over Penn State Nittany Lions
Last week we found a winner in the Big Ten when we predicted the Michigan Spartans would show up against the Iowa Hawkeyes. This week we are back in the Big Ten to take a look at the game between Northwestern and Penn State. It comes as no surprise that Penn State is getting all of the bets. They are a top ranked team and they are a very popular team to bet on. Northwestern was rolled over by Wisconsin a week ago after keeping it close for one half of football. But there are problems at Penn State that are being overlooked.
The public is piling on Penn State without doing their research. The Nittany Lions have problems at right tackle. This is not going to end the season for Penn State but it is a problem they are looking into. They are rotating three players at the position and cannot find a consistent starter. The Lions also have a look-ahead game on deck as they host the top rated Michigan Wolverines next week. The Lions have a lot going on, but the public is ignoring the news and piling on. That should make any Penn State backer nervous heading into this weekend.
Oregon Ducks (22%) over Washington State Cougars
Last week in this spot we picked a west coast overlooked game when we selected the New Mexico Lobos to take down the Air Force Falcons. The Lobos blew the doors off of the Falcons proving that betting against the public can be profitable in west coast games.
This week it is time to go to the west coast once again as we like the Oregon Ducks to take down the Washington State Cougars. This is a game that shows us how the public can overreact to a big win on national television by a team.
Washington State beat the USC Trojans last Friday night on ESPN. That caused the public to push over 70 percent of the bets on the Cougars this week. This is going to be a problem. First of all when a team has a big upset (and beating USC was huge) they have a hard time showing up for their next game. They usually spend most of the week celebrating the win and not focusing on the next opponent. It also should be noted that Washington State has not played a road game yet this season. That means that the team will be adjusting to travel for the first time this year. The line jumped from Washington State (-1) to (+2.5). That move means the smart money is on Oregon and so you should think twice before backing Washington State.Checkout our Free Pick Contests in the Tracker!
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After a three-way tie at the top of the Big 10 East last season, there’s no doubt who the favorite is going into 2017. The Ohio State Buckeyes were the youngest team in college football last season and Urban Meyer still led them to the College Football Playoff. JT Barrett is the prototypical Meyer quarterback and Mike Weber is a powerful runner. This defense should be one of the best in the country too. Ohio State has one less conference road game than Michigan or Penn State and is a solid choice despite the low odds.
Sure, Penn State beat Ohio State last season, but the Nittany Lions needed quite a few breaks along the way. This year, they have to travel to the Horseshoe and the Buckeyes have been waiting all offseason to return the favor. Trace McSorley and Saquon Barkley make this offense very explosive, but there are some legitimate questions about the defense after allowing 52 points in the Rose Bowl. Penn State should easily be the second-best team in the Big 10 East, but it’s hard to back them over Ohio State despite the generous +595 odds.
Michigan is only this short of a favorite because of its name. The Wolverines have just five returning starters from last season’s team and have not recruited at the level that Ohio State has. Not only that, but former coach Brady Hoke didn’t recruit well in his final two seasons. Way too many underclassmen are projected to start for Jim Harbaugh in 2017 and the Wolverines will be fortunate to go 9-3 in the regular season.
In the Big 10 West, Wisconsin is the runaway favorite. The Badgers didn’t drop a game on their side of the conference last year, only losing to the Big Three in the Big Ten East last season. Wisconsin did lose its best running back and best defender in the offseason, but has a lot of other key pieces returning. This team is odds-on to win its division for a reason. Nebraska and Iowa have to replace a lot more and the Badgers get to face their toughest divisional opponent, Northwestern, at home. Additionally, they only have to play Michigan in cross-divisional action.
The one team you want to stay away from is Nebraska. The Cornhuskers have to play Wisconsin and Ohio State in back-to-back weeks and also have to travel to Happy Valley this season. They outperformed their peripherals last season and are due for some regression, especially on offense. Tulane transfer Tanner Lee is expected to be the starter at quarterback, but he didn’t exactly light the AAC on fire.
If you’re looking for a long shot to get behind, Minnesota is somewhat tempting at +3500. The Golden Gophers are in the weaker side of the Big 10 and have the most exciting coach in college football with PJ Fleck. Fleck will have this team motivated for every game and it could easily win its first four conference games.
Michigan State +6000
Odds To Win the Big 10 East
Michigan State +2200
Odds To Win the Big 10 WestThe Big Ten Conference
The Big Ten is the oldest of all conferences still around to this day. It was formed way back in 1896 when Purdue president James Smart thought it prudent to start regulating all intercollegiate athletics. Seven universities immediately joined the fold including the University of Chicago, Michigan, Minnesota, Illinois, Northwestern, Wisconsin, and of course, Purdue.
Iowa and Indiana joined three years later to make the conference nine strong until 1908 when Michigan was voted out after failing to abide by league-wide regulations. Ohio State made the conference nine deep once again in 1912, and then after a decade long hiatus, Michigan was allowed back into the conference making it 10 strong; that my friends is where conference got coined the Big Ten and it’s stuck ever since.
Chicago bolted the league after disbanding its football program in 1946 moving the conference back down to nine members. Michigan State joined the conference in 1950 and nothing about the conference’s landscape changed for the next 40 years. That was until Penn State was admitted in 1990 and started competition in 1993.
Seven years later, Nebraska finally gets admitted into the conference after getting denied on numerous occasions back in the early 1900s. Even though the conference has 12 teams, it remains being called the Big Ten and is split up into two divisions the Legends and Leaders – with a championship game taking place to decide the overall victor. The division names would then be changed in 2014 to the East and West.East Division West Division
Three of the biggest stadium capacities in the country reside in the Big Ten . Michigan Stadium – home of the Wolverines – seats just under 110K people. Beaver Stadium in Happy Valley seats 106,572 crazed Nittany Lions fans, and a shade under 150K pack the seats to watch the marching band dot the “i” in Columbus.
As rich a history this conference possesses, you know some crazy rivalries have formed. There’s the battle for the Old Oaken Bucket between state rivals Indiana and Purdue, the battle for Paul Bunyan’s axe between Minnesota and Wisconsin, and the battle for the Land Grant trophy between Michigan State and Penn State.
With the Big Ten around longer than any conference, it comes as no surprise to see it reeling in a whopping 39 national championships. It’s only a matter of time until it surpasses the Ivy League who doesn’t partake in the festivities any longer. Michigan and Ohio State top the list with eight and seven titles respectively.
Automatic bowl tie-ins to the Big Ten are as follows: College Football Playoff, Rose Bowl, Orange Bowl, Holiday Bowl, Citrus Bowl, Outback Bowl, Pinstripe Bowl, Music City Bowl, TaxSlayer Bowl, Foster Farms Bowl, Quick Lane Bowl, Armed Forces Bowl.College Football Betting Insight
You aren't going to find yourself in much better position if by the time your handicapper puts his predictions out for the weekend the lines have been pounded and the value is gone.
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A pair of ACC teams coming off big wins will meet this weekend when the Boston College Eagles visit the Virginia Cavaliers. Kickoff is at 12:30 EST on Saturday, October 21 at Scott Stadium in Charlottesville, Virginia. Fans can watch the game on ACC Network Extra.
Oddsmakers have Virginia as 7-point home favorites. The over/under is set at 48.5 points. Click here for a full list of Week 8 betting odds and links to game previews.Boston College vs Virginia Vegas Game Odds & Betting Predictions
The Eagles head to Charlottesville coming off a huge road win over Louisville last week. Boston College doesn’t typically win shootouts, but they do when they’re on the ground. A.J. Dillon ran for 272 yards and four touchdowns to lead the Eagles to a 45-42 win. Quarterback Darius Wade also chipped in after replacing injured starter Anthony Brown, who is questionable to start against Virginia on Saturday.
Of course, the win over Louisville only got the Eagles to 3-4 on the season. If Boston College hopes to reach a bowl this season, the Eagles need to beat Virginia on Saturday. Even then they’ll have their work cut out for them.
On the other side, the Cavaliers are just one win away from being bowl eligible for the first time since 2011. Virginia has wins over Duke and North Carolina the last two weeks, making them 2-0 in ACC play and giving the Cavs a chance to win the Coastal Division if they can keep winning.Free College Football Betting Selection: Boston College +7
Virginia has had a good run, but they barely escaped at home last week against an injury-riddled North Carolina team. Meanwhile, B.C.’s record is a little misleading. The Eagles have lost to Wake Forest, Notre Dame, Clemson, and Virginia Tech, and in most of those games, they’ve stayed competitive. Even if Virginia wins, I don’t see them doing so with much breathing room, so I’ll lean toward the Eagles and the points.
Even in a win last week against UNC, the Cavs gave up 157 yards on 13 carries to freshman running back Michael Carter. That’s not a good sign heading into a matchup against Boston College, who loves to run the ball between the tackles. B.C. gained 364 rushing yards against Louisville last week, so after Virginia struggled against the run last week, this is a potential mismatch.
Click on the link for more free NCAA football picks against the spread and total.
Of course, the B.C. passing attack has some questions. But Virginia isn’t likely to light up the scoreboard and build a double-digit lead the way some of Boston College’s opponents this year have done. This will allow the Eagles to keep running the ball and not have to rely too much on whatever quarterback gets the start.
Virginia quarterback Kurt Benkert has had a fine season, but he’s only eclipsed 300 yards passing once this year, and that came against Connecticut. The Cavaliers aren’t likely to create a lot of big plays on offense, which will keep the game at a tempo the Eagles like. Of course, B.C. also proved last week that they can score a lot of points just by running the ball.
With Virginia’s two ACC wins both being one-possession games, I’m not sure I trust the Cavs to cover a 7-point spread. With the way the Eagles can run the ball, they have a realistic chance to win this game on the road. This is a tough game to call, but I haven’t seen enough from Virginia to make me confident that they can beat this spread.
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