Best Trifecta Bet For Preakness - Sports Betting

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Best Trifecta Bet For Preakness

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Best bets for the 2015 Preakness include Firing Line - The Washington Post

Best bets for the 2015 Preakness include Firing Line

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(AP Photo/Matt Slocum, File)

The field is set for Saturday’s Preakness Stakes. Favorite American Pharaoh, who won the Kentucky Derby. and Dortmund, who finished third, give trainer Bob Baffert another shot at winning the second leg of the Triple Crown. Baffert, who has won the Preakness five times, is 3 for 3 with his Derby winners at Pimlico: Silver Charm in 1997, Real Quiet in 1998 and War Emblem in 2002.

“To me, the Preakness is the easiest of the three legs,” Baffert said this week. “The Derby is the hardest. Once you get through there, you know your horses are in top form. It’s a two-week turnaround. It’s just a matter of getting there.”

It’s easy if you don’t draw one of the two inside posts, which American Pharaoh and Dortmund did. The last horse to win the Preakness from the inside post was Tabasco Cat in 1994. He also was the last horse to run in the exacta after drawing the No. 1 post. The last horse to win the Preakness from the No. 2 post was Snow Chief in 1986. Baffert has 10 victories in Triple Crown races, and none of those are with horses who started on the rail.

“I never like the 1 hole,” Baffert said after the draw. “That’s the first time I’ve ever drawn the rail here. I’ve been so lucky. You don’t like to see it, but if he’s the best horse we’ll find out.”

Horses who stayed within five lengths of the leader at the Kentucky Derby have done well in the Preakness. Over the past two decades, eight horses have fit the bill and six have won at Pimlico. Three horses from this year’s Derby meet this standard at the Preakness: American Pharaoh, Dortmund and Firing Line. A less-than-ideal post position for the first two allows us to key in on Firing Line, whose morning line odds stand at 4 to 1.

Firing Line had lost twice to Dortmund earlier in his career but held on to place in the Derby by two lengths; he would have won the race if not for a herculean effort by American Pharaoh. Firing Line was the second-best horse on Derby Day and should have a good showing on Saturday.

Since 1970, just seven horses have won the Preakness without racing in the Derby, so consider the new shooters to round out your exotics. They have been in the exacta in eight of the last 11 years and in the trifecta in nine of the last 11 years. But stay away from Tale of Verve, who “has Belmont Stakes written all over him distance wise.” Eliminate him from the betting slip.

So for an exacta, go with Firing Line over Bodhisattva (20 to 1) and Divining Rod (12 to 1) and hope for a big payday.

But it’s also hard to leave out the two favorites in any trifecta for this year’s race, so I suggest the following strategy using Firing Line as your key horse in a key- or part-wheel wager (where you pick one or more horses to finish first, one or more horses to finish second, and one or more horses to finish third):

  • Firing Line with Bodhisattva and Divining Rod
  • Firing Line with Bodhisattva, Divining Rod with Bodhisattva, Divining Rod, American Pharoah
  • Firing Line with Bodhisattva, Divining Rod, American Pharoah with Bodhisattva, Divining Rod, American Pharoah
  • Firing Line with Bodhisattva, Divining Rod, American Pharoah, Dortmund with Bodhisattva, Divining Rod, American Pharoah, Dortmund

“I think we’ve got a really good chance,” trainer Simon Callaghan said. “We’re really happy with the way Firing Line came out of the race. He’s showing all the right signs.”

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Preakness Stakes Odds - Can We Get a Decent Trifecta?

Preakness Stakes Odds — Can We Get a Decent Trifecta?

With the top three finishers in the Kentucky Derby returning for the Preakness, and no major inflitrators who didn’t start at Churchill Downs a couple of weeks ago, it does not look like this shapes up as a race where we are going to see a big payout in the exotics. Perhaps if Firing Line and Dortmund finish ahead of American Pharoah, who isn’t in the best spot on the rail, you’ll see something relatively interesting. But we imagine that America’s Bookie customers want to investigate some of the possibilities of finding a nice surprise in their trifecta box. If one of the top three choices somehow falters, who could get in there and offer a little value?

Well, many of the people hanging around the press room are talking about Divining Rod, an impressive winner in the Grade 3 Lexington at Keeneland last time out. The owners of the ill-fated Barbaro are coming back to Pimlico for this event, The three-length win last time out offers some hope in the sense that it produced a Beyer Speed Figure of 98, and perhaps a small, additional jump might put this horse onto the board. There is certainly a nice price attached, at +2250. Here is the whole Preakness field, as it is currently posted at America’s Bookie:

1 – AMERICAN PHAROAH -160

4 – DANZIG MOON +1950

5 – TALE OF VERVE +6500

6 – BODHISATTVA +4500

7 – DIVINING ROD +2250

Everyone is throwing out Tale of Verve, and certainly they should; this horse took six tries to break maiden, and did so just a month ago. With less than $55,000 in lifetime earnings and a top Beyer of 72, these owners are most likely doing this for ther nice memories.

Danzig Moon finished fifth in the Derby but is generally regarded to have had a rough trip. This horse has increased his distance in each of the last three races and has steadily improved his Beyer figure to the point where it was a career-high 95 at Churchill Downs two weeks ago. He’s a closer (maybe headed to the Queen’s Plate rather than the Belmont) who might benefit from some of the others like Dortmund, who may or may choose to get to the lead. But there might have to be a swifter pace than there was two weeks ago. Still, a possibility.

There are only two horses in this race who have had a turnaround of two weeks from one race to the next. One of them is Bodhisattva (+4500 at America’s Bookie ), who also happens to be the only contestant who has registered a win on this particular track – that being the Federico Tesio, a Preakness prep race, on April 18. There has been only one graded stakes effort (5th in last year’s Remsen at Aqueduct) and the other wins have been a maiden special and an optional claimer. This horse seems to want the lead, and he just isn’t fast enough to compete on that basis.

That leaves us with perhaps the most intriguing story in this race, which is that of Mr. Z, which did nothing in the Derby (13th), but was brought into the Preakness late after Calumet bought him from Zayat, where he was a stablemate of American Pharoah. Among other things, Mr. Z (+3300 in the Preakness Odds at America’s Bookie) bit off part of Pharoah’s tail at one point (do we have a revenge angle? LOL), but more importantly, for our purposes, this horse could possibly deliver with a new lease on life, having hit the board in five of his previous seven graded stakes races before the disastrous Derby trip.

One of those races was last year’s Los Alamitos Futurity, which had a sparse field like this one and which Mr. Z led, against Dortmund and Firing Line, coming into the final strides before losing by a head (to Dortmund) in a thrilling three-way photo. So it’s quite conceivable he can run with the best in this field. Trainer D. Wayne Lukas doesn’t have to worry about how he’s going to run against Pharoah after the ownership change (we imagine he might make a bold move for the early lead), and keep in mind that this guy has six Preakness victories, including two years ago with Oxbow.

Looking for the best deal upon signup? Come to America’s Bookie and get a great bonus offer, then bet the Preakness Stakes!

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Preakness Trifecta Exotics

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If you're under the assumption that Big Brown can't be beaten in the Preakness, as many horse racing experts are, your only chance to make a decent score on the race is by hitting an exotic wager such as a trifecta or an exacta. In that scenario, if a horse with decent odds such as Harlem Rocker hits the money, you may see a nice payoff. Plus, if your horse pulls the upset and you boxed them in your trifecta or exacta, you may be looking at a huge score.

Editors note - This article was written before Harlem Rocker was scratched. Be sure to check in with us on Saturday for all of our selections for the preakness including the Trifecta.

Harlem Rocker may be one such horse. Though he is already gaining popularity rapidly, which won't help us with the odds. But the way the money is going to be flowing in on the favorite for the Preakness, we may still see a nice price on this one. Harlem Rocker is trained by Todd Pletcher. He is 3 for 3 but untested thus far and is coming off an impressive win in the Withers at Aqueduct the end of April.

Harlem Rocker has just the right style for the Preakness. Just the right style for a horse you're looking to land in the top 3. Harlem Rocker is a stalker. In the Withers, he shadowed the leaders for 3/4ths of the race and didn't make his move until the stretch run. He breezed by the rest of the pack in the stretch to win easily. You can watch that race on You Tube by clicking here

With the Preakness field shaky to begin with, you have to consider using Harlem Rocker in any exotics. He is a must for your trifecta boxes. After all, his "Grandfather" is Holy Bull. Holy Bull was ranked 64th in the top 100 horses of the 20th century in Blood-Horse magazine. Holy Bull produced 2005 Kentucky Derby winner Giacomo as well as Macho Uno a former US champion 2 year old male. So, you could say, winning is in the family.

Even Big Browns cocky trainer Rick Dutrow has gone on record as saying Harlem Rocker is the only other horse in the field he has any respect for and he wasn't worried about anyone in the Derby.

Again, with 13 or 14 horses expected to run, and with Big Brown drawing most of the wagering action, there will be some other horses with some nice prices. There could be traffic problems, or Big Brown simply may not run well with just 2 weeks between races. So look for some nice speed horses as well as a closer or two for your trifecta wagering. They may just be a huge payout waiting for you with a little racing luck!

Check us out later this week. We'll have our official Preakness selections which will include Win, Place, Show and our Trifecta and Exacta selections. Also check back after the race for the official 2008 Preakness Results and Payouts.

Have a look at our other Preakness articles :

Preakness 137: Will We Say, I - ll Have Another?, Sportsglutton

sportsglutton Sports, Food, and Libations Preakness 137: Will We Say, “I’ll Have Another?”

The Preakness at Pimico in Maryland. Photo By: Studio Tempura

Two weeks have passed since I’ll Have Another shocked the thoroughbred racing world, upsetting Kentucky Derby Favorite Bodemeister by a couple of lengths at the wire. Will we be witness to history in the making today, or will there be another upset? Whoever hits the wire first, will get their own place in history, and win the most valuable trophy in sports (or at least a replica), the 140-year old Woodlawn Vase, estimated to be worth well over $1 million.

This week’s eleven horses are far from the Derby field of twenty, but they’ll still have a lot of racing to do despite the 1 3/16th-mile track length of the Triple Crown’s second leg. Post time for the Preakness is scheduled for 6:18pm EDT, with television coverage starting at 2:30pm EDT with the Preakness Stakes Prep on NBC Sports Network, and actual race coverage on NBC starting at 4:30pm EDT. There is a scheduled flyover of an Air Force B-2 Stealth Bomber, and that may be at the beginning of the day’s race card, or just before the Preakness itself. And expect the Naval Academy Glee Club to lead the spectators in the stands in their rendition of “Maryland, My Maryland” just as the horses ready at the starting gate. No rain in the forecast, so the Turf course will be FIRM and the primary race surface will be FAST.

It’s very likely that within the eleven-horse field, only a couple standouts emerge. Hate to say I’m in agreement with many of the handicappers on this one, but here’s my take on today’s race:

Best Bets: This will be the first test to see if Bodemeister can spoil I’ll Have Another’s chances at a Triple Crown chance; I’m thinking this will be an upset. For a more in-depth look at those favorites who are running in the Preakness who contended in the Derby, check my Derby post here.

World-Renowned trainer Bob Baffert will take his entry Bodemeister (named for his son) up against Derby Winner I'll Have Another again today. Photo By: Benjamin Thomas

#7 Bodemeister (Tr: Bob Baffert/Mike Smith aboard) – Trainer Bob Baffert and jockey Mike Smith team up again to act the spoiler for I’ll Have Another. Smith let Bodemeister shift into high gear nearly from the opening of the starting gate, and let him run up front for most of the Derby trip. A little premature, in my opinion, since he ran out of gas in the tank the final sixteenth of a mile and let I’ll Have Another edge him out by a length, placing second.

This son of Empire Maker starts out as the co-favorite today with his rival, posting an Equibase speed rating of 106 in the Kentucky Derby. Over his last four races, he’s averaged a 108.75 Equibase speed rating, and he’s placed first or second in every one of his five outings this year. Purchased at the September Yearling Sale at Keeneland (2010) for $260,000, there were high expectations of him from the start, even though he did not race at all as a two-year old (very uncommon). While not the favorite (though he could be by post time), he’s the likely winner of this race, starting from an advantageous 7-hole post position. Morning Line: 8-5

#9 I’ll Have Another (Tr: Doug F. O’Neill/Mario Gutierrez aboard)- This horse was the upset two weeks ago at Churchill Downs, but the shorter distance of the Preakness might not be in his favor. He came on strong with jockey Mario Gutierrez at the whip to win his first race from the 1/8th Pole in the final stretch, besting other horses who had led the pack most of the race, posting a respectable 108 Equibase speed rating. This colt, purchased at the 2011 OBS (Ocala Breeders and Sales) Spring 2-year-old auction for a mere $35,000, has won all three races he entered this year (though only posting a little more than a 105 speed rating), and was on the board (i.e. finished in the top three) in two out of three last year. He’s got the ability to win, and thus further fuel the Triple Crown whispers, but he may be outclassed at this distance, aside of a non-optimal 9-hole post position. Morning Line: 5-2

Probables: A pair of 6-1 morning line picks, but could be good EXACTA or QUINELLA wagers inclusions.

#5 Went the Day Well (Tr: H. Graham Motion/John Velazquez aboard)- This New York-bred colt had some promise in the Derby, but got bumped along the way after starting 13th, finishing fourth. Before posting a 105 Equibase speed rating in the Derby, he had been victorious in his previous two outings, posting an average 104 rating. If he can get along the rail early, he might have a chance at a decent finish at this distance. Morning Line: 6-1

Creative Cause, Photo By: Shazstock Photography

#6 Creative Cause (Tr: Mike Harrington/Joel Rosario aboard)- Prior to the Kentucky Derby’s 5th place finish, this colt has been on the board in his last eight races (all graded-stakes races). In those last nine races, he’s averaged an Equibase speed rating of 103 (peaking at 110 in March with the San Filipe Stakes). His record and breeding tell me he’s got a shot; look for some longer odds than his morning line come post time; could play well in some combos. Morning Line: 6-1

Long Shots: Aside of the above four picks, every other horse in the eleven-horse field could be considered a long shot.

#2 Teeth of the Dog (Tr: Michael Matz/Joe Bravo aboard)- Matz, former Olympic Equestrian champion and trainer of 2006 Derby winner Barbaro, is out to continue the work where Barbaro left off. Not having the luck with Derby entry Union Rags, Teeth of the Dog is now in the lineup, placed third in the Wood Memorial after being driven four wide (109 Equibase rating), passed on the Derby, and was a trainer scratch last week in the Peter Pan. He’s been on the board all the other three races he’s run. Starting from just off the rail in the #2 post position, he could have a good run at the Woodlawn Vase today and put up some good payoffs. Morning Line: 15-1

#8 Daddy Nose Best (Tr: Steve Asmussen/Julien Leparoux aboard)- Asmussen’s mount finished the Derby a lackluster 10th, but has been on the board on nearly every race dating back to June of last year. Veteran jockey Leparoux is back aboard DNB, so perhaps he can get this colt back in victory circle with the laurel of black-eyed susans. DNB was forced in to the rail and caught in traffic during the Derby; the #8-hole starting position for the Preakness will bode significantly better for him and give a lot of room to run. His last two wins prior to the Derby run, he posted a 103 speed rating; perhaps this is another one of those days. Morning Line: 12-1

Any of the other five horses in the Preakness, while all of Triple Crown caliber, are either going to be the true out-of-the-blue longshot, or will just provide traffic through which the winners will coast.

Tech Talk: Even though many horse racing fans bet on their favorite mounts, there may be some out there who don’t exactly know how to bet a race. Some quick and easy tips:

  • The amount of the bet- The odds and prospective payoffs one sees on the Tote Board are based on a standard $2 wager (i.e. if the odds are 4-1, a $2 wager on a horse finishing first place will pay $8).
  • Type of bet- For those wanting to bet on a horse to win, that’s easy. Just tell the man or lady at the betting window “WIN”. A bet for second place would be to “PLACE”, while a bet for third place is to “SHOW”.
  • Number of the horse- Self-explanatory.

Putting those together, one betting on the Morning Line favorite to win, #7 Bodemeister, would say, “$2 to WIN on 7”.

Three Staples for the Preakness: Daily Racing Form, Preakness Program, and a Black-Eyed Susan. Photo By: apium

For those who want a more exotic type of wager, you can bet on the top two horses to finish in order (EXACTA), the top three horses to finish in order (TRIFECTA), and the top two horses to finish in either order (QUINELLA). There are also bets like the top four (SUPERFECTA), a bet where you pick the winner and bet two or more horses to finish second (WHEEL), and the ability to bet any number of horses to finish in any order, like a TRIFECTA where you’re betting on every combination of the three horses, called a “BOX”. (some information from SBNation.com)

There are many other possibilities for betting the races, so check your programs or Racing Forms for additional information. One thing to remember: every bet you make, is an individual bet for each combination. In other words, an EXACT wager is two individual bets ($4 for a $2 bet), TRIFECTA is three bets ($6), and a TRIFECTA BOX is six individual bets ($12). The more exotic the bet you make, the more it will cost you to place a bet. Bet smart, and GOOD LUCK!

By The Way: Did you know the term “to get a leg up” (get an advantage on the competition) stems from the equestrian world? It comes from jockeys/riders who would get a hand in mounting their horse. Considering the diminutive size of most jockeys, and the relative size of their horses, one doesn’t exactly find many ladders around the paddock area. (AmericanIdioms.net)

We’ll be ready to see if I’ll Have Another truly wants a place in history, or if Bodemeister spoils the chances for the first Triple Crown champion since 1978. The weather is calling for party cloudy and a high of 84 degrees, so if you’re heading to Pimlico, be sure to take plenty of liquids and sunscreen. Time to get out the Maryland Crab Cakes and Black-Eyed Susans to satisfy your hunger and thirst, and be ready for the Call to the Post. It’ll be a great day for some fast racing. RIDERS UP!!

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I know nothing about horse racing with the exception that I love to watch horses run. I went to the races once when I lived in Chicago and was amazed at what an adrenaline rush it was just to watch.

Suddenly, I’m craving for a mint julep.

The answer: YES WE WILL. I’ll Have Another wins Preakness 137! So, will we end the 34-year Triple Crown Drought? We’ll see in three weeks, when I’ll Have Another goes for the victory, and horseracing immortality. One note: IHA has never raced a mile and a half (That’s the Belmont race length).

What a terrific race and it will be interesting to see if IHA can go the Belmont distance…it’s a heartbreaker!

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